Are sites like RealClearPolitics inflating Trump’s poll numbers . . . " I believe RealClearPolitics may be designed to inflate Trump’s poll numbers and make democrats less comfortable about the election " You're obviously new to the party RCP has been doing this forever For at least 2 decades, they've always put the thumb on the scale of the Republican They cherry pick which polls are included, and if the poll has multiple results based on different
Comparing Realclearpolitics vs Fivethirtyeight polling averages model . . . Comparing Realclearpolitics vs Fivethirtyeight polling averages model: which is the better one? RealClearPolitics (RCP) version seems to average the last few polls and charts it There doesn't seem to be editorializing other than they don't let the same pollster represent themselves twice in the averaging the calculation
Where can I find the most accurate and unbiased polling? : r . . . 538 and Real Clear Politics are pretty well regarded as the gold standards There's not much difference between 538 and RCP, just minor methodological differences in their polling averages You might find some value in looking at both, but I stick with 538 and that's treated me pretty well
Can Someone Explain This Real Clear Politics Projection To Me?! Take Arizona for ex Their polling average (which is itself questionable) has Kelly up by over 4 points To fix that, they look at the RCP average for this point in the race from the previous three elections and average how wrong they ended up being (underestimated Republicans by 2 3), then arbitrarily apply that offset to the current average
What has RealClearPolitics done to their poll tracking site!?! : r . . . A subreddit to discuss political science Political science is the scientific study of politics It deals with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and laws Postings about current events are fine, as long as there is a political science angle Rationality and coherent argument are
Real Clear Politics Current Polling Map : r ElectionPolls - Reddit I think this is too polls based, but yeah, Biden is clearly the underdog and Trump favored if it were today It's not, and things nationally have gone back to him leading the popular vote, but losing the electoral college, 2016 esque but worse in 2024 basically The question it comes down to is simple: how much is Biden being underestimated in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, if
Do you trust 538 or Real Clear Politics more for election . . . - Reddit Do you trust 538 or Real Clear Politics more for election forecasts? One thing I’ve been hearing lately is how much the polls in the swing states have tightened after the GOP convention And how Biden could actually lose When I dug into it more I saw more of a shift in the real clear politics site but 538 didn’t tighten much at all
How trustworthy do you think RealClearPolitics is? - Reddit It’s fine as an aggregator They make choices I don’t always love (things like using RV vs LV, sometimes the poll cutoffs are weird where you’ll have like two very new polls and one old one with a major event in-between) but if you understand polling and use your brain it’s fine It is my go-to aggregator My second preference would be 538, third the Economist